Unconsciously, the May Day holiday has already arrived.

This means that the rebound starting from 2635 has already entered its fourth month.

This has exceeded the initial judgment at the time, which believed that the market would end in the latter half of April.

The power of macroeconomic regulation is very strong, forcibly extending the market cycle to four months.

There are usually two types of market rebound cycles.

The first type is to end the battle within 3 months, usually within 45-55 trading days.

The second type is to end the battle within 4-5 months, usually between 65-75 trading days.

From 2635 to now, there have been a total of 54 trading days, which is clearly heading towards the second cycle.

Advertisement

This means that the market in May has a time window of 10-20 trading days, and the probability of hitting a high point in the middle and late period is relatively large.

The biggest problem with retail investors is that they either do not look good, or they are overly optimistic.Once the market starts to take off and the whole market is in a frenzy, it's easy to see things as extremely optimistic.

However, the reality is that once the market gets overheated, the trend can come to an abrupt halt.

Now, let's talk about the height of the market trend.

Starting from 2635, the height of the first round of the market's rise can actually be predicted.

This is done using the spatial prediction method.

Generally, the space from the lowest point starts at 20-25%, which is the range of 3162-3293. If we take the median, it would be around 3227 points.

This prediction method is relatively accurate.

This is based on the height of the market made by super funds.

Some people might say, before 2863 and 2885, the rise reached 3424 and 3418, with the spatial height being 19.6% and 18.5% respectively, neither exceeding 20%.

But this time the situation is a bit different, because the bottom at 2635 is not at the same level as the previous two bottoms.The rise in the bottom of a large scale typically exceeds 20%, but the first phase of the market will not exceed too much.

Whether you regard this round of the market as a large rebound in a bear market or the first round of the bull market, the measurement method is the same.

The upward space of this stage is likely to be completed in May.

The space in May is also locked, the rebound height will not exceed 3300, and it is likely to be a little over 3200.

The main factors determining the precise index points are market sentiment and some external bearish and bullish factors, but the overall space will not deviate too much.

Therefore, the overall tone of the market in May has been set, with the first half of the month focusing on the main rise, and the second half focusing on the top of the plate.

Since the index is a process of rising to the top of the plate, let's analyze the characteristics of the index rising to the top of the plate in history.

First, there are many consecutive positive lines, and the rise accelerates.

Before the market sees the top, there will be a very smooth market, it has always been like this.The article can be translated into English as follows:

There are essentially two patterns.

The first pattern consists of a series of small and medium-sized bullish candles, similar to the 8 consecutive bullish candles that started in February.

If you look closely, after the 8 consecutive bullish candles, the market's upward space becomes very limited, and it will reach its peak after a while.

The second pattern is a series of medium-sized bullish candles, which has also occurred many times.

3418, 3731, 3458, 3288 - recently, many peaks have been formed in a similar manner.

Regardless of which pattern the market takes, it is a seemingly great opportunity for a carnival.

Before the market reaches its peak, it needs to change everyone's mindset, from the indecisiveness between 3000-3100 to boldly entering at 3200 points.

Once this shift occurs, it provides the opportunity to sell, and only then can a top be formed.

And the bullish candles are the best medicine to boost confidence.

Second, the medium-sized bullish candles in the top, the final sprint to the peak.The most venomous and deadly, in fact, is the central long line at the top.

Retail investors can ignore small long lines, but for the central long line, they are often eager to try.

At the end of the rise, there will often be a central long line to support, which is the last carnival and also a dose of anesthetic.

The impact of the central long line makes everyone feel that the market has just started the main rise, and it will be far from the top.

And the central long line means the market is rising across the board, hot spots are soaring, and there are many opportunities.

Many times before the top, it is a situation where hundreds of stocks are limited, with a hundred flowers blooming and drums beating.

The central long line with an increase in volume is actually the horn of the main force pulling and retreating, and it is also a sign of the top.

This signal can only be understood by the main force of funds, and retail investors are definitely misunderstood and deceived by the temptation to buy more.

Seeing a central long line at the end of the rise is a standard signal to reduce positions, and it is also a good opportunity to escape the top.

Third, a slight horizontal consolidation, officially reaching the top.At the top, there is actually a horizontal plate, but the cycle is very short.

It is more of a shock in the middle of the market, often 2-3 trading days.

The construction of the top is definitely not a one-time thing, but it needs some repetition to make a formal confirmation.

The reason for the repetition is that some hot spots may just be hot, and the market sentiment will not recede so quickly.

Therefore, the index will have a small shock at the top, but there will not be a big drop.

There may be some declines in the plate, but it will also be pulled up at the end of the plate, creating a situation of a standoff between the bulls and bears.

In fact, once this situation occurs, it has already confirmed the establishment of the top in advance, but the retail investors have not noticed.

When all the hot spots recede, the market is no longer on the mountain top, at least it has to slide to the waist of the mountain.

Fourth, the first round of decline, the middle Yin opens the way.

The confirmation signal of the completion of the top construction must be a medium-sized Yin line, it cannot be a small Yin line.When this signal appears, the main force has already distributed a large amount of chips at a high position.

The medium-sized black line is the mark of their final clearance.

Once the broken line comes out, if you still have illusions, then you are firmly trapped on the top of the mountain.

Many people think that there will be no big fall this year, which is for the index, not for individual stocks.

After the market completes the complete three-wave market, there must be a deep retouch.

From 2635 to 3200, it has risen by nearly 600 points, and the retouch of 300-400 points is not too much.

But it seems that this more than 10% retouch, many individual stocks have to bear a 30-50% decline, most of the small and medium investors can't accept it.

So, when the signal of the top of the plate appears, it should be withdrawn in time, otherwise the consequences are unimaginable.

Some people ask, what is the main line in May.Answer: Reheating old rice.

In simple terms, it refers to the second phase of the initial rise that occurred in the first stage of February.

The reason it is called reheating old rice is because this is a continuation of the first phase, not the beginning of a new round of market movements.

This is a complete round of market movements, which will start and end at the same place.

If you still don't know where it started, hurry up and check the market trends around the Spring Festival to see how it went.

May is the last round of spring harvest in the first half of the year, so if you can grasp it, seize the time.

Of course, if you can't grasp it, don't be too attached to the market, because behind the rise, there is always a fall.