If one must use two words to describe the A-shares in March and April, it would be "redundant," tasteless to eat, yet a pity to discard.

If one insists on using four words to describe the current trend of A-shares, it would be "hesitant and indecisive," neither rising nor falling, causing anxiety.

There are some opinions that even consider the current A-shares to be on the verge of collapse.

If it is said that the 3000-3100 level cannot be held, once it breaks downward, it may again point to 2600-2700.

The market has been fluctuating narrowly here, consolidating for nearly two months, what is the intention?

Everyone is looking for an answer: is the probability of going up high, or is the probability of going down high.

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In response to this, combined with the market, talk about some opinions and views.

There are several reasons for the current hesitant trend of the market.

1. The scarcity of themes, the main line is not clear.Apart from the fervent low-altitude economy, the entire market saw no other decent theme in March and April.

However, the overall scale and volume of the low-altitude economy are not sufficient to support the trend of the entire index.

The low-altitude economy is only in its initial development stage, and the overall market size will not be as large as that of new energy vehicles in the future.

The capital attraction of this main line is limited, leading to the market's main capital not knowing where to go.

In addition to this line, the market has two distinct lines: one is the high dividend line, and the other is the high-growth technology line.

But both lines have the same problem, which is that they are not cheap and are at historical highs.

This also makes many funds quite hesitant, wondering whether to enter or retreat, and how to operate specifically.

The market has actually promoted a main line, new quality of productive forces, but the concept is vague and there has been no good block effect.

Without a clear main line, the market trend is difficult to start.

2. Valuation is cheap, but performance growth is slow.The valuation of A-shares is relatively inexpensive, which is also an important factor supporting the market sentiment.

However, on the flip side, the reason for the low valuation is due to the slowdown in earnings growth.

The overall economic slowdown has led to a deceleration in the performance growth of listed companies, pushing the entire market into a low-growth cycle.

Without high growth, there are no high expectations or room for imagination.

When capital enters the market, it tends to be hesitant and adopts a more wait-and-see attitude.

The so-called cheapness is relative; if it can only provide a margin of safety but not a profit effect, then it is not attractive to capital.

Conversely, some sectors with high growth prospects have still experienced a certain degree of increase, as the expectations are favorable.

3. Insufficient new capital, and existing capital taking turns to "harvest" the market.

To be honest, A-shares really lack new capital, especially above the 3000-point mark.

The rise from 2635 to 3000 was too rapid, leaving capital with no opportunity to get on board at lower levels.The capital that gets on board at high positions is naturally cautious.

The fluctuation between 3000 and 3100 is actually the capital repeatedly doing high selling and low buying, reducing its own chip cost.

The corresponding cut is the leek of retail investors, becoming a vampire of retail investors.

Those who lie flat and do not move are slightly better, the result of chasing the rise back and forth is a step-by-step loss.

In the existing market, there will be no big market. After everyone's expectations are consistent, the market's upward momentum is insufficient because there is not enough space.

According to this situation, how will A-shares go in the future?

Since it is neither up nor down, the answer naturally has only two.

1. First rise and then fall, take the lead in selling out.

Near 3000 points, the washing is completed, and the main force begins to pull up.The probability of this market trend occurring is quite high, because from the perspective of the market itself, after a period of rising, there have been very few instances in history where there has been a long-term horizontal decline.

Even the head at 3731 and the top at 3418 were both after a long period of horizontal movement, first moving upwards, and then forming the top pattern.

This is because once the market becomes horizontal, it falls into a stalemate. After funds wash back and forth, the floating chips become fewer and fewer.

At this time, if the main force wants to sell, it must first lift, and only after there is a following plate can it smoothly make a big escape.

A major feature of this type of top is that the high point is not far from the platform.

If 3000-3100 is a fluctuating platform, then the high point is also in the range of 3200-3300.

This is because the main force's capital strength is limited, otherwise it would not be so hesitant.

For ordinary retail investors, the rise after the fall requires special attention.

On the one hand, retail investors with positions in 3000-3100 may have high expectations once the market starts, and miss the opportunity to run away.

On the other hand, retail investors with no positions in 3000-3100 may turn from short to long once the market starts, and enter at a high position, which is not as good as continuing to be empty.2. First fall, then rise, absorb low-priced chips.

First falling and then rising is actually beneficial for retail investors, but the market may not allow it, as it is easy to undermine confidence.

3. Since it is so tiring to go up from 3000 to 3100, why not come down.

Nowadays, there are mysterious funds forcibly supporting the 3000-point mark, wanting to make a tail market, which leads to everyone losing money but not the index points.

If this place can break through and make a retrace downward, then going up will be much more solid.

However, there is no capital that dares to smash the market, or is willing to hand over the chips to smash the market, resulting in a low probability of the 3000-point mark breaking through again.

But if it breaks through, there is no need to panic, just wait for the adjustment to end and buy buy buy.

Going down, the market's low point is also around 2820-2850, and there will not be a deep fall.

This is also the reason why capital is unwilling to smash the market, because once the chips are handed over, there is no lower point to get them back.

On the contrary, if it rises above 3200 and then falls back to 2800, there will be room.Two possible trends, although both are possible, but considering the current situation, the probability of the former is significantly higher.

The reason why the probability of rising first and then falling is greater is due to the sedimentation and distribution of chips.

Around the 3000 point mark, those who should get on the train have already done so, and those who should get off have almost done so.

The market has seen a significant reduction in volume, which means that the balance between bulls and bears has been restored once again.

If a downward attack occurs at this point, it means that not many funds are willing to take over the market, and it is actually very difficult to sell, and the market is prone to a slow decline.

The probability of this situation occurring is actually not high, at least under the current market environment, the probability is relatively low.

But if it rises first and then falls, it is a normal release of chips and emotions, breaking through 3200, forcing short positions to turn long and enter, and then returning to the adjustment near 3000.

In essence, it depends on the space that funds want to operate this year, whether it is mainly above 3000 points or below 3000 points.

From the perspective of absorbing chips, below 3000 points is safer.

From the perspective of market confidence, the fluctuation above 3000 points will be more attractive.In summary, considering 3000 as a watershed, selling when it rises and buying when it falls is a relatively appropriate strategy for the current market.

The year 2024 is a year for layout, do not expect too much, just grasp the market that can be grasped.