When the market is falling, there is a chorus of lamentations.

As soon as the market shows a slight recovery, everyone is shouting about a bull market again.

In fact, the presence of a bull market is indicated by clear signs.

In the past, we often said that ducks are the first to know when the water of the spring river warms up.

Nowadays, many people have forgotten this, forgetting about this duck.

This duck is the securities firm, which has never been absent in a bull market.

In every bull market, securities firms have never been absent.

There are two old-established securities firms in China, one is Shenyin & Wan Guo, and the other is CITIC Securities.

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Later, Shenyin & Wan Guo merged with Hongyuan Trust, and became Shenwan Hongyuan.

Shenwan Hongyuan was listed in 1994, while CITIC Securities was listed in 2003.The first round of the super bull market from 2006 to 2007 saw the range increase of CITIC Securities exceed more than 20 times.

The second round of the super bull market from 2014 to 2015 saw the range increase of CITIC Securities exceed more than 4 times.

The third round of the structural bull market from 2019 to 2020 saw the range increase of CITIC Securities exceed more than 1 time.

As the market size grows larger, although the increase has narrowed, it has never been absent.

However, from 2024 to now, as a weathervane of the bull market, CITIC Securities has not only failed to rise but has also seen a significant decline.

Many people may say that it is no longer the era of CITIC.

CITIC has all kinds of negative news, and even everyone is calling for a crackdown, but the market law is actually unchangeable.

Even if we put aside this bull market flag bearer and look at the entire securities sector in 2024, it is still declining.

Securities firms have not moved at all, and capital has no interest in securities, seemingly without any expectations, indicating that the market has not yet arrived.

Of course, on the eve of the start of the bull market, securities firms are generally lying down and pretending to be dead.For indeed, the true main force must go to layout, and implement a buy-buy-buy strategy on securities firms.

A lot of negative news about securities firms emerges right before the bull market, when it's time to short the securities firms to get chips.

A sharp drop in the securities sector at the bottom is often the biggest signal for the start of a bull market.

The most recent time was on October 11, 2018, when the index broke through the 2016 circuit breaker bottom of 2638, setting a new low.

On that day, the securities sector plummeted by 8.5%.

On October 19th, after the inertial decline was released, the securities sector appeared at a historical bottom, more than two months earlier than the bottom of the Shanghai Composite Index in early 2019.

Moreover, in the first round of the market that started in 2019, the entire securities sector achieved a doubling of the market.

It can be said that a perfect verification of the securities sector's one step ahead of the market cycle was achieved.

But this time, the securities firms are completely unexpected.

Apart from the 6.3% surge in the entire securities sector on February 6th, the subsequent trend is hard to describe.The absolute leader in the wind direction, CITIC Securities, has plummeted from 21.8 to 17.26 after rebounding.

The cumulative decline in the interval exceeded 20%.

The funds did not intend to pull the securities firms at all, because this stage is not a bull market at all, but the stage before the bull market, digging a pit to get chips.

If the securities firms do not miss the bull market, then the lower the securities firms are suppressed before the bull market starts, the cheaper the chips are, the better.

The market is always a game that revolves around the chips, that's all.

When it falls, it scolds the mother, and when it rises, it shouts that the bull market is coming.

This wrong way will never grow.

Many people want to find a bull market, want to recognize whether the bull market has come, how to see the signal, how to judge.

In addition to the actions of the securities firms, give everyone a few very clear standards.How to Solve the Issue of Capital

The rise requires capital to drive it, and this capital must be at the level of trillions.

In the last bull market, it was the expansion of public funds, with several hundred million in funds entering the market.

In the bull market before that, it was the leveraged funds from off-exchange financing that entered the market in large numbers, driving it.

As for the years 2006-2007, and even earlier in 1999-2001, it was the large influx of retail investors that drove the bull market.

At the current juncture, there is no sign of incremental capital, so how can there be a bull market?

The issue of capital is an inescapable problem that must be resolved.

Otherwise, how can there be a bull market without money? That would be a complete fallacy.

Of course, we are not short of money; the bank deposits are in the hundreds of trillions, and it is very easy to move a few trillions.

M2 has already reached 300 trillion, and it is not impossible to inject liquidity into the stock market. The question is how to do it, when to do it, and why it should be injected into the stock market.2. Which direction is the main line?

Every bull market has a main line.

From 2006 to 2007, it was non-ferrous metals; from 2014 to 2015, it was the ChiNext board; from 2019 to 2021, it was consumer goods.

The main line of a major bull market must not be a small sector, such as the low-altitude economy.

The main line of a major bull market must be a large sector, large enough to account for 20% or more of the market volume.

If being a financial powerhouse is the main line, then big finance still has a long way to go.

At present, there is no clear main line, a large enough main line, to accommodate funds and speculate on the market.

Only after this direction emerges will the market's trend officially start, and there will be a so-called major bull market.

3. Is the starting point low enough?

Major bull markets always start from a very low point.998, is a place that everyone thought would not fall below 1000.

1664, is a time when everyone felt it would not fall below 2000, including 1849, 1949, two secondary low points.

From 2850, to 2638, to 2440, these are all new low points that have been continuously updated.

These low points have forged the starting point of a big bull market.

From 2885, 2863, to 2635, are the low points low enough?

There is no definitive answer, but these low points can at least bring a small market, whether it is a big bull market or not, time will confirm.

4, whether the mood is particularly bad.

In the end, the market is a cycle of emotions.

You can imagine what the mood was like at 998.

If you haven't experienced it, think about 1664, think about 1849, think about 2440, think about these low points.Translate the following passage into English:

Have you not experienced any of these, then surely you've experienced 2635, how was your mood?

The starting point of a great bull market must be a sufficiently low emotional point, this has nothing to do with any valuation.

The market must crush those who hold positions to the point of collapse, and then they will obediently hand over the chips, which is the real low point, and only then does it have the foundation for a bull market.

It's not about cutting losses on the floor, but cutting losses in the basement.

All of the above four conditions must be met to have a real bull market.

Most of the market trends are actually "ephemeral", that is, just a few months of a small cycle.

The small cycle of the market often has one or two of the factors.

For example, this round of rebound occurred under the condition of poor sentiment, the main line is not particularly clear, the starting point is not particularly low, and the increment is unknown.

Investment needs to make a judgment on the cycle, which requires a comprehensive understanding of the market to see through the opportunities and where the cycle is.

(Note: The number "2635" in the original text may refer to a specific stock ticker or event, which may require additional context for accurate translation.)