Many people may not have noticed that the unusual movement of the Shanghai Composite Index on Friday was different from before.

The Shanghai Composite Index saw an increase in volume in the afternoon.

With a turnover of 204.7 billion yuan, it is not an astronomical figure, but since the market started in February, this is a significant volume.

The last time there was an increase in volume in the afternoon was on the first day of the market's start, on the afternoon of February 6th, with a turnover of 215.8 billion yuan.

The previous fake breakthroughs in the market were as follows:

March 19th, 3090, with an afternoon turnover of 162.5 billion yuan.

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April 2nd, 3085, with an afternoon turnover of 150.4 billion yuan.

April 18th, 3102, with an afternoon turnover of 153.2 billion yuan.

It can be seen that after the funds raised in the morning, there was no continuity, or it was deliberately high selling, suppressing the index's further rise.

In the second half of last year, the area around 3089 also took a long time to consolidate, from early November to early December.The current market trend, around the 3089 mark, has been in a sideways consolidation for as long as two months.

However, the 3000-3100 range this year is not the same as last year's 3000-3100; it's merely a psychological pressure point.

Not only is the Shanghai Composite Index affected, but if you look closely, the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 also saw increased trading volume on Friday.

All signs indicate that the tail end of the market trend has officially set sail.

If we say that the past two months at 3000-3100 were a bear trap, then this tail end of the market will be defined as a bull trap.

The market is actually very honest.

The reason why the 3000-3100 range cannot be broken through is because the capital does not recognize it.

In other words, there is no reason to break through, nor is there a sector that can drive the market upwards.

The entire market's capital has embraced the direction of the CSI Dividend Index, high dividends, to stabilize the index.During the consolidation period, apart from a few hot spots such as precious metals and the low-altitude economy, there are no other focal points in the market.

When the market lacks a central focus, it becomes very difficult to achieve a real breakthrough.

I have mentioned on several occasions the issue of index resonance.

Ultimately, the resonance of the index is still related to technology, and it is hardware technology.

This can only indicate several important pieces of information.

Firstly, after all the twists and turns, the market ultimately recognizes technology.

In March and April, many people were talking about the technology bubble, which led to a significant adjustment in some technology stocks.

At that time, the argument was that technology was hyped based on themes, without actual performance, and many were very illusory.

But what the market was actually hyping was the low-altitude economy, which was even more illusory than technology.

At that time, many people denied the logic of technology, and they all believed that this round of technology hype was a way to sell out.Indeed, there are some individual stocks that are indeed being sold, such as a certain computing power stock that failed in mergers and acquisitions, which is a clear case of selling.

However, the actual situation is that by the end of April, when the market is handing in its report card, it is still some parts of the technology sector that have responded.

And most of the market's speculative concepts have not shown any performance.

That is to say, the funds have been going around in circles in these two months of horizontal consolidation, and have returned to the technology sector.

Because only in this place, it feels more secure.

Attempts to take other sectors as the main line have not been able to drive the index to break through, only waiting for the end of the technology adjustment can trigger a market resonance.

Secondly, there is a part of the funds that participate in everything except technology.

In these two months of consolidation, the market is actually shrinking in volume.

From the beginning of March, the highest trading volume was 135 billion yuan, and at the lowest point, it was only more than 70 billion yuan, with a reduction of nearly 60 billion yuan in volume.

And when technology started, the market's trading volume returned to 108 billion yuan.This indicates that within the entire market, there is a portion of capital that lies dormant for a long time, focusing only on technology stocks.

This is quite terrifying, as it can lead to a situation where the rise and fall of technology equates to the rise and fall of the index.

It is also why it is said that the tail end of this market trend is ultimately still in the hands of technology.

When the hype around technology stocks subsides, the market will become very quiet again, even to the point of being "neglected."

Other sectors find it difficult to take on the main responsibility or bear the heavy burden.

In fact, from the perspective of chips, it is essentially still the capital that is at play.

If one has carefully studied the first-quarter reports of technology stocks, they would find that the capital from the north is almost uniformly allocated to technology, and some public and private funds are also flocking into technology.

As for other industries, there is no additional capital, a situation very similar to the technology boom in the first half of 2023.

Thirdly, the end of the market cycle will be synchronized with the end of technology.

Therefore, it is clear for us to judge whether the market is heading towards a bull market or a false breakout direction.Although it cannot be said to be high and mighty, the overall price of technology, which is already not low, can go how far.

The market's ultimate direction of speculation, since it is the hardware of technology, then how far the major giants such as CPO can go is the key to how far the entire index can go.

From the perspective of price, several major giants recognized by the market, such as Yizhongtian, are at the highest historical level.

Even if the first quarter financial report performance is several times the growth, it can't stop the premium valuation, and the market bubble is constantly blowing up.

If these directions are a round of pulling up and selling, then the entire index will also be a round of pulling up and selling.

When this direction is completely flat, the market's funds will appear in the dilemma of March and April, with nowhere to go.

At that time, the situation may be worse, because most of the stock prices have gone up a step compared to March and April.

This means that the market has opened up the space for decline and has such a condition.

Therefore, how long the second main rise of technology can go has become the key to how far the market can go.

 Looking back at this round of the tail-end market trend, it won't go too far, nor will it last too long. The market will give us the impression that the trend is very good, with a significant volume breakthrough, and even the feeling that a bull market is coming.

However, from an objective point of view, even if technology stocks forcefully pull up by 30%, the index will only rise by a maximum of 5-10%. If heavyweight stocks do not gain recognition and do not have more room for appreciation, then the index will not be able to rise.

In the index weight, the CSI Dividend Index has actually started to build a top at a high position, and sectors such as coal, banking, oil, and home appliances should be approached with caution. The only sectors that can move and are at a low position are insurance, securities, infrastructure, and real estate.

However, the imagination space for these sectors is too limited. The market cannot solve a core issue—the growth problem of heavyweight sectors under the weak macroeconomic conditions. This is like trying to speculate on valuations without any substance, and capital will definitely not recognize it.So, in the tail-end market, the focus is on quick and short-term gains, and the main activity is to lure in more investors.

In terms of the time frame, if it can last for 3 to 4 weeks, that would be a stroke of luck. As for the space, just keep it clear in your mind.

The market has set sail, but it's important to understand the nature of the market and its ultimate destination, and be fully prepared.